What would happen without satellite communications?

Maritime shipping supports the transport of essential goods for manufacturing, energy, food, and retail sectors. The interruption of satellite services would critically disrupt supply chains, affecting not only shipping companies but also related industries such as port operations and warehousing. The projected economic loss is approximately €19 billion, consisting of €3.5 billion in direct impacts and €15.5 billion in indirect effects related mainly to supply-chain logistics.

In aviation, lack of satellite connectivity for air traffic management could result in the cancellation or delay of around 4,000 transatlantic flights, leading to approximately 1,800 hours of cumulative delays. The economic loss to the sector is estimated at €558.7 million.

The consequences extend beyond conventional communications. Around 2.2 million individuals in ESA Member States and Canada, particularly those in remote or mountainous regions, would be left without internet access . Emergency messaging systems, which rely on satellites to deliver critical information, would not be able to operate, compromising emergency response capabilities. The economic cost in this area is similar to that of aviation, at around €352.7 million.

The energy sector, particularly offshore drilling platforms operating beyond the reach of ground-based networks, would also be affected, with an estimated economic impact of €89.8 million.

Additionally, cash machines (ATMs) and Point of Sale (POS) terminals in remote locations would not be operational. POS systems are devices used to process payments by card or mobile phone in shops and other venues. Because these systems rely on satellite connectivity in areas without reliable ground connections, their failure would stop physical transactions altogether.

The study’s findings are based on a scenario in which satellite communications are disrupted for seven days, affecting all satellite orbits, regardless of the cause, while other space-based services such as satellite navigation remain fully functional.

Methodology

To arrive at these results, the research team reviewed existing data and reports and consulted 48 experts – including satellite operators, connectivity providers, national regulators, academics, and financial institutions.

Five sectors were selected for analysis based on their reliance on satellite communications. The degree of dependence of the sector on satellites was categorised as high, medium, low.

Using this information, they built an economic model to estimate the loss of economic activity (measured in Gross Value Added) and the loss of connectivity benefits for users. They also assessed wider social impacts, such as the number of households left without connectivity.

As the analysis is hypothetical and several factors could influence the final outcome, the report proposes three economic impact scenarios: low, medium, and high. The total economic impact in the first scenario would be €5 billion; €10 billion in the second one; and €20 billion in the third.