For decades, conversations about UFOs—now often referred to as unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP)—have occupied an unusual place in public life. Many people are curious about the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence, yet most people are cautious about discussing them with others because of stigma and fear of being judged.
New research suggests that this hesitation may reflect our psychology rather than skepticism.
Most Believe in Extraterrestrial Intelligence
A recent study by Avi Loeb at Harvard University, and colleagues, surveyed 6,060 participants recruited through the Prolific research platform, which is widely used in behavioral research [1]. The sample consisted largely of highly educated adults, many holding college or graduate degrees.
Instead of asking a simple yes-or-no question about extraterrestrial intelligence, participants were asked to estimate the probability that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists somewhere in the universe. Respondents provided numerical estimates between 0% and 100%.
When researchers averaged the responses, participants’ mean estimate was about 67%, suggesting that on average people believe intelligent extraterrestrial life is more likely than not to exist.
Another way of examining the results highlights how widespread this belief is. The researchers found that about 95% of participants gave probability estimates greater than 50%, meaning they believed it is more likely than not that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists somewhere in the universe [1].
In other words, nearly everyone in the sample leaned toward believing intelligent life beyond Earth probably exists, even if their degree of certainty varied.
The Cosmic Closet: A Massive Perception Gap
The most striking finding in the study was not simply what people believed—it was what they thought others believed.
After reporting their own probability estimate, participants were asked to estimate the probability that people in their social circles believed intelligent extraterrestrial life exists.
The difference was dramatic. Participants’ average personal estimate was about 67%. Their estimated belief of others was about 21%.
This produced a 46-percentage-point gap between personal belief and perceived social belief [1].
In other words, many people believed intelligent extraterrestrial life was plausible but assumed others were far more skeptical.
The researchers referred to this phenomenon as the “cosmic closet.” People privately hold a belief but assume it is socially unpopular, leading them to underestimate how widely it is actually shared.
The Psychology of Pluralistic Ignorance
This pattern closely resembles a well-known concept in social psychology called pluralistic ignorance.
Pluralistic ignorance occurs when individuals privately hold a belief but mistakenly assume that most other people disagree. Because individuals want to avoid social embarrassment or reputational risk, they often remain silent about their views. That silence then reinforces the illusion that the belief is uncommon even when many people privately share it [2].
Classic research demonstrates this dynamic in areas such as college drinking norms. Students often believe their peers are more comfortable with heavy drinking than they themselves are, even though most students privately feel similar reservations. Because everyone assumes others approve of the behavior, few people challenge the perceived norm [3].
Intelligence Essential Reads
The same mechanism may help explain the “cosmic closet.” If individuals assume curiosity about extraterrestrial intelligence will be dismissed as irrational, they may keep their views to themselves even when many others privately share that curiosity.
When Perception Shapes Reality
Norm misperception can have real consequences. When people underestimate how widely a belief is shared, they may hesitate to discuss it publicly, explore it academically, or pursue it professionally.
Psychologists have observed similar dynamics in other domains. Research shows that many people underestimate how common experiences such as anxiety, depression, or loneliness actually are, which can make individuals reluctant to talk about their own struggles. Fear of being judged or stigmatized often leads people to stay silent even though many others are experiencing similar challenges [4].
Researchers have also found that people frequently overestimate how extreme the views of political opponents are, contributing to perceptions of deeper polarization than survey data actually shows [5]. When individuals believe their views differ sharply from the perceived majority, they may stay silent to avoid social conflict.
This creates a feedback loop.
When people remain silent because they believe their views are uncommon, that silence prevents others from realizing how widely the belief is actually shared. As a result, skepticism appears more widespread than it really is.
In effect, people remain quiet to conform to a social norm that may exist largely because everyone else is also remaining quiet.
Expert Opinion Barely Changed People’s Views
The researchers also tested whether revealing expert opinion would influence participants’ beliefs.
Some respondents were shown survey results indicating that many astrobiologists—scientists who study the origins and distribution of life in the universe—consider extraterrestrial life plausible.
Interestingly, this information had only a small effect on participants’ probability estimates [1]. Even after seeing expert opinions, participants’ beliefs changed very little.
This suggests that people’s beliefs about extraterrestrial intelligence may not depend strongly on expert authority. Instead, individuals may rely more on intuitive reasoning about the vastness of the universe or broader worldview assumptions when forming their judgments.
Implications for UAP Disclosure
The “cosmic closet” may also have implications for how society responds to discussions about UFOs and UAP.
If people consistently underestimate how many others share their curiosity about extraterrestrial intelligence, public conversations may remain more constrained than public opinion actually warrants.
Research on pluralistic ignorance shows that when individuals learn their views are more widely shared than they assumed, they often become more willing to express them openly [2].
If that pattern holds here, the biggest barrier to open discussion may not be skepticism about extraterrestrial life itself.
It may simply be the widespread assumption that curiosity about the topic is socially stigmatized.
A Psychological Mirror
The biggest surprise in the study was not how many people thought extraterrestrial intelligence might exist.
It was how dramatically people misjudged what others believe.
The “cosmic closet” reminds us that social reality is shaped not only by what people believe—but by what they believe others believe.
Sometimes the strongest social norms are the ones that exist mostly in our assumptions about each other.