Tyler would’ve ran on states rights, but also would’ve stressed that he was the president for 4 years, and he was a President with no party affiliation. He would also talk about how he was the one who annexed Texas, gave Florida statehood, resolved the Canadian border dispute, and established relations with China. He could also try to sell himself as a moderate, pre-Jacksonian nationalist, unionist former president who governed before.
Tyler would run as an Independent, or recreate his 1844 Democratic-Republican Party, which was nicknamed the Tyler Democratic Party. Tyler would probably choose someone like Clement Vallandigham of Ohio as his running mate. This is because Vallandigham was the leader of the Copperhead faction, he was the most extreme Northern opponent of a civil war. He also campaigned against Lincoln. He was also a northerner, which could help gain votes for a Tyler Campaign.
For electoral votes results, it would be:
Abraham Lincoln – 116 electoral votes
Stephen A. Douglas – 65 electoral votes
John Tyler- 57 electoral votes
John C. Breckinridge – 53 electoral votes
John Bell – 12 electoral votes
In the House contingent election, with the northern vote being split mostly amongst Lincoln and Douglas, Tyler would be able to win by winning the southern states and some northern ones.
Tyler realizes that the Union is close to splitting. In real life, he hosted the Peace Conference as a private citizen, which of course failed. But if he called the Peace Conference as President, the opposite would happen. He would push permanent protection of slavery where it exists, but ban the expansion of slavery. This is seen as some sort of Henry Clay style compromise. Northern Republicans are of course morally opposed to slavery, but the fear of disunion and civil war makes them approve of this compromise.
The Confederate States never really forms. South Carolina does try secedes, but no other southern states do. Border states refuse to join, and without Virginia the confederacy isn’t that viable and likely to live.
Tyler still dies in 1862, so in the end we have a President Clement Vallandigham. Vallandigham doesn’t do much as President, and doesn’t run for reelection in 1864 and retires in 1865. After the Tyler/Vallandigham era, most President’s who are elected into office don’t do much with the slavery issue, and kick the can down the road.
As the Industrial Revolution spikes between 1870 and 1900, and the transition from farms and plantations to cities and factories occurs, slaves aren’t needed by most of American society. Slavery ends naturally by the time the 20th century rolls around, but of course segregation still takes its course. Southerns don’t need black people as there slaves, but they still see them as 2nd class citizen’s.
This scenario is niche, but it is really interesting to consider how the man who left the Union for the Confederacy is the man who could’ve kept the country together.
by GodSaveMe5