Polymarket offered bets on the outcome of the upcoming NASA Artemis II mission, specifically on whether it would explode. Four astronauts are scheduled to be onboard.
Artemis II is NASA’s first crewed lunar flyby in 50 years. The launch is expected this year, but an exact date hasn’t been determined.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, a stock-market-style prediction platform, allowed simple yes-or-no bets on whether Artemis II would explode. As of mid-February, more than $80,000 had been traded regarding potential mission failure.
Polymarket on Feb. 15, 2026
Polymarket Tweaks NASA Market
Following public backlash, Polymarket changed the wording on its website from “explodes” to “booster rupture” and claimed the market has nothing to do with the crew’s safety.
According to the market’s original rules:
“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the booster for the Artemis II mission explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.’”
On its social media, Polymarket responded to the controversy.
“To clarify: this was a market about a potential booster-stage rupture — a defined hardware failure scenario — not about the Orion crew capsule or astronaut safety,” the company said. “This was not a market on crew injury or loss of life.”
It’s unclear how the crew would be safe following such a failure.
For context, the last rocket explosion resulting in the immediate death of people on board during launch was the NASA Space Shuttle Challenger in 1986.
Other Shockers on Polymarket
So-called “prediction markets” such as Polymarket don’t take bets explicitly on specific people dying (also known as “death markets” and “assassination markets”). However, the upcoming NASA lunar mission betting appears to come close to those banned markets.
For Polymarket, controversy appears to play a role in building its brand. It has an 11-figure valuation and is backed by Donald Trump Jr., Peter Thiel, and NYSE-owner Intercontinental Exchange.
The gambling site has taken bets on topics such as war, the Brown University shooting, and the Nancy Guthrie kidnapping case.
Polymarket has US- and international-facing platforms that may offer different betting options for users. Numerous countries have banned Polymarket.
In the U.S., its product is facing fierce legal challenges from states concerned about its sports betting markets, which they say violate state-level laws.
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