What are the real possibilities for innovation?
There are also criticisms of the German rearmament plan as a whole: according to a report by the authoritative Kiel Institute, Germany will spend a lot by investing in a technologically ‘old’ way, without developing autonomous systems, artificial intelligence and truly innovative platforms. The risk, in essence, is that the great financial effort will result in a relative benefit, investing in industrial and military models that are out of date and do not take into account the events of recent years.
In the space sector, the danger is, by its very nature, much less, but even here one has to consider the consolidated European mentality that looks at the value of orders and not at the ability to integrate innovation, speed of development and construction, which are fundamental in the military field, as well as the dual use of satellites.
What role for the European Space Agency?
This is a delicate point, which carries over into European coordination as a whole and the role of ESA, the European Space Agency, of which Berlin is the largest contributor with over five billion, spread over several years. The figure represents 23% of the agency’s entire budget, while France, around 16.5%, and Italia, 15.7%, contribute almost on a par.
Esa’s geographic return policy means that in these three countries almost all the investment in Esa is reinvested directly in the national aerospace industry. An excellent thing, of course, but one that over time has introduced considerable rigidity, the enemy of agility in decision-making, speed of implementation and, ultimately, the ability to innovate: European launchers, which are excellent but not as reusable as SpaceX’s, are less economical and are the best example. Germany, which is also predominant in the Agency’s leadership, would seem to strengthen Esa with this military space plan, even if not directly, since national investments of this magnitude induce more industrial capacity and more technological development. One might also think that, at a time when dependence on non-European technologies seems increasingly difficult to bear, Berlin could help Esa member states to break out of this constraint.
Satellite Constellation
Others, perhaps more realistically, see the risk of weakening the role of the ESA, which already has to chase and finance many national initiatives, e.g. in France, Sweden, Spain, that want to develop medium-small launchers, for which, it is assumed, the European market will soon be in demand, given the large number of national satellite constellations planned.