The next major war may not begin with tanks crossing borders or missiles arcing across continents. It is increasingly plausible that it could begin silently and invisibly in orbit.Â
Space has become the nervous system of modern military and economic power. Long before open conflict erupts, hostile actions in space are already shaping the strategic environment. Orbital near-misses, dazzling lasers, electronic jamming, cyber intrusion, shadowing and close-proximity operations are testing the boundaries of acceptable behaviour. Much of this activity remains below the threshold of armed attack. Attribution is difficult, escalation ambiguous, and intent often deniable. Yet the risks are increasing.Â
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The contours of competition are clear. The United States, China, Russia, and India have all demonstrated anti-satellite capabilities, removing any doubt that objects in low Earth orbit can be targeted. Dual-use satellites capable of manoeuvring, inspecting, or potentially interfering with others blur the distinction between peaceful activity and military positioning. What was once a sanctuary is now contested.Â