Van Allen Probe A, part of NASA’s Van Allen Probes mission, is forecast to re-enter at around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, according to the United States Space Force. The timing carries an uncertainty of plus or minus 24 hours.
NASA said the spacecraft is expected to burn up as it passes through the atmosphere, though some components may survive re-entry. The risk of injury to anyone on Earth is considered very low, estimated at about 1 in 4,200. NASA and the Space Force will continue tracking the spacecraft and updating predictions.
Launched on Aug. 30, 2012, Van Allen Probe A and its twin, Van Allen Probe B, were originally designed for a 2 year mission. Instead, the pair spent nearly 7 years flying through the radiation belts surrounding Earth to study how charged particles enter and leave these regions.
The belts, known as the Van Allen radiation belts and named after scientist James Van Allen, trap high energy particles within Earth’s magnetic field. They play a crucial role in shielding the planet from cosmic radiation, solar storms and the constant flow of solar wind that can damage satellites and other technology.
The mission was the first specifically designed to operate for extended periods inside the radiation belts, an area most spacecraft and astronaut missions try to avoid because of intense radiation.
Managed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, the mission produced several major discoveries. Among them was the first evidence of a temporary third radiation belt that can form during periods of intense solar activity.
NASA ended the mission in 2019 after both spacecraft ran out of fuel and could no longer maintain their orientation toward the Sun.
Initial estimates suggested the spacecraft would re-enter Earth’s atmosphere in 2034. However, stronger than expected solar activity during the current solar cycle increased atmospheric drag. In 2024 scientists confirmed the Sun had reached its solar maximum, generating intense space weather that sped up the spacecraft’s gradual descent.
NASA said the twin spacecraft, Van Allen Probe B, is not expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere before 2030.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that NASA ruled out asteroid impact with the Moon in 2032.