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Unusual bets on alien life raise suspicion
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Unusual bets on alien life raise suspicion


https://www.newser.com/story/384462/somebody-made-some-very-unusual-bets-on-aliens.html

A nearly six-figure wager on aliens has turned one corner of Wall Street-style betting into a conspiracy theorist's dream. The Atlantic's Ross Andersen reports that on Monday night, a trader on prediction platform Kalshi suddenly dropped close to $100,000 on a contract that pays out only if the Trump administration formally confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by year's end. Around 35 minutes later, another bet almost twice that big was placed. The trades were so big and abrupt that, for a brief window, the market was pricing the odds of such a revelation at roughly one in three.

  • "If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes," the Kalshi contract states. It says people not permitted to trade include "persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies" and "persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying." What makes it stranger, Andersen notes, is timing and technique: the bets arrived days after the latest flurry of alien chatter—Barack Obama's joking podcast remark and President Trump's order to start declassifying UFO-related files—had already faded, and they were placed in lump sums rather than the cautious "slicing" used by savvy traders. Ben Shindel, an expert on prediction markets, tells the Atlantic this looks either like a clumsy amateur or an insider with nonpublic information.

by TrickMirror9723

View 19 Comments

19 Comments

  2. NastyNas0 on

    Worth mentioning that this would cash out yes even if no evidence is provided with the “definitive statement”

  3. EtherWhey on

    again: disclosure will not ever be announced by those who speak only in transaction. if you weren’t certain before… this should tell you all you need to know.

    they profit by playing this game, and always have. you’ve read the epstein files. you have eyes– and yet, you really still expect honesty from felonious pedophiles ?

  4. blue_barracuda on

    OK this ironically gives me the most hope out of anything. Holy fuck this might actually happen

  5. bigskinnybubba123 on

    its probably bob, my neighbor. hes lost lambos on the superbowl. lol

    he own numerous kabab shops….

  6. EntJay93 on

    Ahh, I may have missed my chance. I actually thought about placing these bets weeks ago. Unfortunately, I am too broke to play such games.

  7. Si1verange1 on

    This is definitely the most excited I’ve been about the corruption and insider trading of our lawless oligarchy.

  9. RedHeadedSicilian52 on

    Wouldn’t this pay out even if NASA said that they found germs in Martian soil or the Venusian atmosphere or the Europan ocean or something?

  10. Valdoris on

    Seeing how they are all corrupt and doing insider trading to make easy money.
    I’m actually starting to believe something could be happening lmao

  11. J_Foster2112 on

    It’s going to suck for them when it’s revealed they’re not “extraterrestrial” but “inter-dimensional”.

  13. Dinoborb on

    last year at end of december, a similar bet was made in another platform that ended with a “yes” on very flimsy grounds. the odds then were on the 99% and the measure they used as counting for “confirming ufo documents” was an aaro release from like september.

    we shoudnt be taking betting apps as valid ways of measuring “disclosure” as we dont know what the people manipulating the market bot behind the scenes will use as “proof”

  18. TankieTanuki on

    >Expert believes they were placed either by an amateur trader or somebody with insider info

    Expert believes it is either X or it is not X.