A huge wager on extraterrestrial life being revealed in 2026 may be linked to a trader with inside knowledge, a report from The Atlantic suggested this week.
Why It Matters
The report comes amid a spike in interest related to aliens and unidentified flying objects in recent weeks following remarks on the subject from President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama.
A 2021 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 65 percent of Americans believed intelligent life may exist on other planets.
Why Did the Kalshi Alien Market Spike This Week?
According to The Atlantic, a trader placed a $100,000 bet on prediction market Kalshi at 7:45 p.m. ET on Monday that the Trump administration will confirm the existence of alien technology or life by the end of December.
A review of trading data by the outlet found that a second bet nearly twice the size was placed approximately 35 minutes after the first. The Atlantic noted that some speculated it may have been a trader with insider knowledge, and that the bets could have been placed by the same individual.
It remains unclear who placed the bets or why they did so. Kalshi told Newsweek it was looking into the report.
Last week, President Trump said he would instruct Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to start locating and making public government files pertaining to UFOs and potential extraterrestrial life.
“Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters,” Trump said in a social media post.
What Did Obama Say About Aliens Being Real?
Trump’s announcement came after Obama’s remarks during an interview with political commentator Bryan Tyler Cohen quickly went viral, with the former president answering “They’re real” when asked about aliens in a quick‑fire portion of the conversation.
Obama later sought to play down his remarks, writing: “Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there’s life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances we’ve been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!”
Rumors that Trump is planning a major speech about unidentified flying objects (UFOs) have also been growing since published claims suggested a revelation may be imminent.
“This week’s mysterious and mammoth bets did not get placed until a few days after this flash of interest had mostly gone away. From February 20 to the night of the 23rd, when the peculiar trades occurred, no further alien news was reported, no congressional hearings were held, and no rumors received significant circulation online,” read The Atlantic’s report. “Whatever the Monday-night whales (or whale) knew—or thought they knew—it doesn’t seem to have come from the public-information environment, and no one has made bets of that size in the alien-prediction market since.”
What People Are Saying
Prediction market expert Ben Shindel told The Atlantic that the bets may have been placed by an inexperienced trader. “The other possibility is that it’s an insider,” Shindel said.
Will Trump Confirm Alien Life Exists in 2026?
Hegseth recently offered an update on the Trump administration’s plans, saying that while he could not offer a time frame for a potential UFO file release, “we’ve got our people working on it right now.”
“I don’t want to oversell how much time it will take, right? We’re digging in. We’re going to be in full compliance with that executive order, eager to provide that for the president. So, there’ll be more coming on that as far as the process of what we’ll do,” Hegseth said.