just writing a short "essay" about how lunar resource extraction despite the hype isn't profitable (probably). If you have any constructive criticism that would be great as im planing to make a longer actually good version and maybe even a video.
Lunar resource extraction is a bad idea. Why? Well first i am going to start with the example of iron concentration. Lunar regolith has a concentration of iron oxides of ~15% in Fe rich areas and as low as ~5% in Fe poor areas. In pure metal form this comes out as 3.8% iron and 11.6% iron in Fe poor and rich sample respectively as taken from Apollo data. Comparatively high grade iron ore on earth has a concentration of >60% (95% of Australia's exports of iron ore are high grade ore for context) with low grade deposits with concentrations of 20%-40% iron. Additionally, there are many other iron bearing minerals on earth such as basalt which have concentrations of iron oxides between 5% and 14% giving it a similar iron concentration of ~3.8% – ~11.6% depending on the basalt deposits. However these basalt deposits are not used for iron, Why? They have to low of a concentration to be economically viable which is my key argument for why celestial resource extraction will not be profitable. If it is not viable to extract the materials from very iron rich basalt's then why adding in the many, many issues of the moon such as dust, atmosphere, radiation, water and distance from earth (which brings many many extra problems that we dont have to worry about here) is it viable for the moon's low concentration of iron? In my next i would like to present the argument that i think ties it all together. Launch costs and propellant. For moon based resource extraction to become viable (ignoring the fact that it will be cheaper to mine equivalent material on earth) launch costs would have to fall to 10 cents per kilo. This price would be in order to match the cost of transporting a single 6m container with a max carrying capacity of 28 200kg and transport cost of 5000$ which i think is an appropriate metric assuming said container would be full of iron(though prices can go much lower in the example of iron ore ships to achieve the iron ore price of 92$ per tonne).
But i will admit i am using earth launch prices, wouldn't it be cheaper to launch from the moon? I would content NO. Rockets have engines, tanks, payload bays, heat shields but as well all know its just a giant useless tower without the fuel and oxidizer. Now as many have rightly pointed out oxidizer is possible to get on the moon. Lunar regolith is after all mainly composed of metal oxides. So what about fuel? wherein lies the issue, there are little fuel options on the moon. there is water which could be used in a Hydro-LOX engine but we need the water for a lunar base. There is magnesium and aluminum from your oxidizer production but you need a binding agent and solid motors are imprecise. So the only option is transferring propellant from earth which is impractical. Assuming you are using star ship requiring 8-10 launches to refuel a single star ship to get to the moon you are going to need A LOT of star ships to pull it of which is going to be marvelously expensive and impractical.
with these points and hopefully more in the future i rest my case to why lunar resource extraction is unprofitable and probably not worth it (at least not untill we run out of basalt)
I would write more but this is about all i had in the word document all ready planned so my other points will have to wait till a later date. Sorry if the grammar is horrible im not exactly top of my english class. Also i am not an expert just a nerd who enjoys space sh*t like the rest of us. And once again any constructive feedback is welcome
by Neat-Shelter-2103